Argentina and Switzerland preview: Messi vs. a stout Swiss defense
Argentina features a unique offensive gameplan, featuring Lionel Messi. But the Swiss have only conceded three goals in five games.
Argentina and Switzerland meet on Saturday night (9 p.m. EDT) in the World Cup quarterfinals following grueling games in which both needed extra time and beyond to advance. Factor in that they feature the two oldest squads remaining based on playing time, and the match’s outcome could be decided by skill as much as by longevity.
Let’s focus on the skill. Argentina features a unique offensive game plan, by sitting far back and inviting its opponent to get out of its low block and run into Argentina’s attack.
The graphic below shows the compactness of Argentina’s passing compared to Switzerland’s, which more resembles the rest of the tournament field.
This offensive approach has left Argentina vulnerable on the back end. Argentina has allowed five goals in its past three matches. But the strategy underscores Argentina’s confidence that it can handle pressure in tight quarters, win back the ball quickly if it’s lost, and advance the attack by catching the opponent out of its defensive formation.
That’s a good bet when you have an all-world player like Lionel Messi on your squad.
Messi’s brilliance isn’t just visible; the data proves he’s dynamic, diverse and unmatched in attack. He’s the best in the World Cup at handling the ball under pressure — averaging over eight receptions with defenders in close proximity per 90 minutes, while retaining the ball 90% of the time in those tight situations. He’s also tied for the lead for most goals (8), and he’s near the top in expected assists and shot-creating actions.
Switzerland has featured a stout defense in the World Cup — having never trailed in any match and only allowed three goals through five games. Part of the reason for Switzerland’s defense is strong goalkeeping.
Switzerland’s Gregor Kobel has conceded 0.9 fewer goals than his post-shot xG suggests he should have — meaning he’s outperforming the quality of shots he’s faced. This is the best of any goalkeeper left in the tournament. By contrast, Argentina’s Emiliano Martinez has conceded 2.5 more goals than expected, per the same metric. Post-shot xG measures how likely a shot was to score once it’s already on target.
Kobel emerged a hero in Switzerland’s win over Colombia in the Round of 16, making a flying save in the first half and a diving save on a penalty kick.
Data analysis provided by Brennan Klein, director for Northeastern University’s NetSI Sport research group.
