What makes a soccer match exciting? There’s data for that
This algorithm has ranked all the World Cup matches based on “excitement,” using data-driven factors involved in the stakes, drama and gameplay.
Egypt led 2-0 and was minutes away from a victory over Argentina on Tuesday.
Instead, Lionel Messi and the reigning World Cup champions stormed back with three goals to complete a comeback for the ages. Hours later, Colombia and Switzerland battled to a 0-0 score through extra time, with both goalkeepers making key saves late, before Switzerland prevailed in penalties, 4-3.
Two immensely exciting games. But did one game deliver more than the other? With more match data available now than ever before — completed dribbles, shot quality, save difficulty, and dozens of other metrics — can we actually measure a match’s excitement?
The answer is yes, according to Brennan Klein, director of Northeastern University’s NetSI Sport research group. For a project that combines his lifelong love of the sport and his work as a data researcher, Klein developed an algorithm that rates the excitement level of each World Cup match.
His data-driven rating system — using the Hudl Statsbomb dataset, which logs over 3,400 events per match — rests on five categories of factors that build tension before and during a match. Crunch all the data for a given match, and the algorithm delivers an “excitement rating” from 0 to 10 — 10 being the most thrilling game you could watch.
Below are the categories, the weight each carries, and some of the factors included:
How the excitement rating is built
Five weighted categories combine into a single 0–10 rating.
Editor’s Picks
A highly exciting match might feature high stakes for both teams, lots of back-and-forth action, sensational goalkeeping, and a late game-winning goal. A match lower on his excitement scale might be a lopsided match, where the favorite wins by multiple goals, and the outcome doesn’t change which teams advance to the knockout stage.
So, which match has ranked the highest thus far: Belgium vs. Senegal in the Round of 32. Belgium trailed 2-0 before mounting a thrilling comeback, scoring two goals late in the second half and a penalty kick in extra time. The Argentina-Egypt match ranked sixth overall.
Here’s the complete top 10 (through the Round of 16, as of Wednesday morning):
The 10 most exciting matches of the 2026 World Cup
By NetSI Sport’s excitement rating, through the Round of 16.
Klein acknowledges that overly quantifying the game risks losing its humanity and richness, and that some factors that make a match exciting can’t be quantified. Case in point: the Mexico-England match fell outside the top 10, despite an exciting conclusion and an intense environment in Mexico City Stadium. But he is fascinated by what it is about the actual gameplay that draws people in, and curious about whether there’s a way that data could help explain it.
“I think the advances in data collection and reporting around soccer have paved the way for … new and quantitative ways of understanding our experience when we’re watching the game,” he said.
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