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  • Scientists try to predict number of US Ebola cases

    Associated Press - 11/01/2014

    In a second simulation, Northeastern University professor Alessandro Vespignani projected between one case — the most likely scenario — and a slim chance of as many as eight cases though the end of November.

    “I’m always trying to tell people to keep calm and keep thinking rationally,” said Vespignani, who projects the spread of infectious diseases at the university’s Laboratory for the Modeling of Biological and Socio-Technical Systems.

    In an article in the journal PLOS ONE, Vespignani and a team of colleagues said the probability of international spread outside the African region is small, but not negligible. Longer term, they say international dissemination will depend on what happens in West Africa in the next few months.

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