High risk Ebola could reach France and UK by end-Oct, scientists calculate
Daily Mail - 10/05/2014
The World Health Organisation (WHO) has not placed any restrictions on travel and has encouraged airlines to keep flying to the worst-hit countries. British Airways and Emirates airlines have suspended some flights
But the risks change every day the epidemic continues, said Alex Vespignani, a professor at the Laboratory for the Modeling of Biological and Socio-Technical Systems at Northeastern University in Boston who led the research.
“This is not a deterministic list, it’s about probabilities – but those probabilities are growing for everyone,” Vespignani said in a telephone interview. “It’s just a matter of who gets lucky and who gets unlucky.”
The latest calculations used data from October 1.
“Air traffic is the driver,” Vespignani said. “But there are also differences in connections with the affected countries (Guinea, Liberia and Sierra Leone), as well as different numbers of cases in these three countries – so depending on that, the probability numbers change.”