The UK has a new Prime Minister. What does Andy Burnham mean for Trump, Ukraine and Brexit?
The British leader has promised to do things “differently.” Political scientists at Northeastern University London have gathered a few clues about what this might mean for global relations
LONDON – The appointment of Andy Burnham as the new prime minister of the United Kingdom brings to the fore a host of global issues that could realign Britain’s standing with the United States and Europe, according to Northeastern experts on British politics and international affairs.
Burnham’s ascent to Number 10 Downing Street comes as relations between the U.K. and U.S. have become fractious and Britain negotiates a new relationship with the European Union following Brexit. In addition, the U.K. has taken a leading role in European efforts to bolster support for Ukraine against Russian invasion.
But for watchers of Britain’s foreign policy, much remains unclear as the former mayor of Manchester takes leadership of the nation and the helm of the ruling Labor Party, said Josephine Harmon, assistant professor in Political Science at Northeastern University London.
“Burnham is untested regarding his approach to managing relations with the Trump administration,” said Harmon. He is also untested in many policy areas, she added, noting that Burnham does not have a specific or articulated set of policies that he intends to take to the country.”
Amid this unknown, Northeastern experts aimed to shed light on what might be expected from Britain’s seventh prime minister in the last 10 years, who arrived promising to deliver “the most significant change” seen in four decades of British politics.
“This moment will be a circuit-breaker for Britain,” Burnham told voters Monday in his first speech on the steps of Number 10.
But what does that really mean for the country and its place in the world?
US relations
At present, the relationship between Burnham and President Trump is essentially a blank slate, said Julie Garey, Northeastern associate teaching professor of political science.
“It could manifest into a closer relationship. I’m not sure that President Trump knows much of PM Burnham beyond very, very broad strokes, so there’s not necessarily a preexisting amicability or animosity,” said Garey.
Burnham’s predecessor, Keir Starmer, who announced his resignation in June, initially forged a positive relationship by avoiding criticism of the U.S. President, but this soured after Trump criticized British policies on the U.S. and Israel’s war with Iran, immigration and other issues.
Although U.K. policy watchers don’t anticipate that Burnham will shift toward supporting Trump’s war or crack down on immigration, the U.S. president appeared to have warmly received Britain’s new leader, writing in a post on Truth Social that the people in the Scottish city of Aberdeen were “dancing in the streets” after Burnham said he intended to open up drilling in the nearby North Sea oilfields.
It is yet to be seen if Burnham can maintain the so-called “special relationship” between the U.K. and U.S., said Harmon. “He is considered to be more direct than Starmer but also more adept at managing relations,” she said.
Holding the line on Ukraine
Burnham is likely to continue with Starmer’s support for the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, NATO, and Ukraine, which is widely popular domestically and across Europe, said Harmon.
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“Starmer was seen as successful on the international stage and may continue in a successor role in international affairs,” she said.
Britain has announced new defense spending and a British general is set to take over command of a major NATO Joint Force Command post, and seems poised to continue support for Ukraine, Garey said.
“All of these are also likely positives for Trump,” she said. “But Burnham has an ambitious domestic agenda and resources aren’t infinite.”
The new prime minister’s ambitious policies, such as ending homelessness, mean less he has to spend on NATO priorities like energy infrastructure.
Garey said, within NATO, members do not all agree on what the right next steps are for Ukraine or for the alliance. But among European nations, “there is an agreement that they face common threats, challenges, and opportunities,” including the need to coordinate in areas like equipment acquisition and military preparedness.
Closer ties with European Union?
In defense and military affairs, there are certainly opportunities for deeper relationships between the U.K. and the rest of Europe, said Garey. Twenty-three NATO allies are also EU members and “there’s increasing recognition of the value of coordination in ensuring European security moving forward – especially in light of the U.S.’s uncertain commitment,” she said.
But it remains unlikely that Burnham will go further and push for the U.K. to rejoin the European Union, said Harmon. While campaigning to become a member of parliament, Burnham said he felt the UK’s decision to leave the EU had been damaging. But it is unlikely he would reopen the polarizing debate over Brexit, she said.
“While it may be a vote winner in some Labor constituencies, it would make him lose support in others,” Garey said. “Economic experts continue to suggest that re-joining the Single Market would be a boost to the economy. But the electoral calculus is likely to rule this out any time soon.”
