Argentina versus England preview: Data indicates a competition between Messi and Bellingham
For Argentina, Lionel Messi will be key to the team’s success. For England, Jude Bellingham and Harry Kane are the standouts. What does the data say about the semifinal matchup?
Argentina and England may be entering Wednesday’s World Cup semifinal matchup at Atlanta Stadium somewhat battered.
Argentina’s previous knockout matches against Switzerland, Egypt and Cape Verde were all won after long and fierce back-and-forths, explained Brennan Klein, director of Northeastern’s NetSI Sport research.
England’s games against Norway, Mexico and the Democratic Republic of Congo were similarly tense and close, he added, with the English team having to rely on standouts such as striker Harry Kane and attacking midfielder Jude Bellingham at critical moments.
So how might Wednesday’s match actually shape out? Insights from Northeastern’s NetSI Sport research group offer some clues.
Looking at the starting lineups and passing network formations for both teams’ most recent matches, a few trends become clear, Klein said.
Over the past two games, Argentina has had to adapt away from its typical style of play, in which it tends to sit back comfortably on the pitch and invites pressure. Instead, it has been forced to become more scrappy, spreading out players to respond to opponents’ attacks. Forward and attacking midfielder Lionel Messi, for example, has been operating much higher on the pitch and is running less than usual, a potential indication of fatigue, Klein said.
England, by contrast, has been much more disorganized and inconsistent. Their passing patterns vary significantly from match to match, Klein said the data shows, which he attributes, in part, to the team trying to create inventive ways to cope against threats. But that also points to a lack of cohesion and focus.
What is consistent among both teams is that they rely on a few key players to dominate the game. For Argentina, that’s Messi, who has scored eight goals during this World Cup. For England, that has been Bellingham and Kane, who have each scored six goals in the tournament.
The three will undoubtedly play a major role in Wednesday’s match.
Editor’s Picks
Age may also play an important factor, Klein noted.
Messi, the star player for Argentina, the oldest team in the tournament, is 39. England, by contrast, features a lineup of much younger players. Bellingham is only 23.
Regardless of age, neither team wavers when they are behind on goals, added Ashley Phillips, head coach for Northeastern’s women’s soccer team.
“They can go down in games and come back without any hesitation or franticness,” she said. “Both teams have been in situations where they have had to dig themselves out of a hole.”
We saw this when Kane scored two goals against the Democratic Republic of Congo in the final minutes of the second half of its knockout match to win the game. We also saw this when Argentina secured three goals against Egypt in the second half of its knockout match after spending much of the game two goals behind.
Wednesday’s matchup will be an exciting game to watch as both teams are skilled at keeping possession of the ball but also in creating dynamic attacks, she added.
“I think it’s going to be a really fast game once it gets started,” she said. “And I think people that get excitement out of goal scoring are going to see a lot of that,” she said.
Northeastern Global News, in your inbox.
Sign up for NGN’s daily newsletter for news, discovery and analysis from around the world.
