A data-driven look back at how the host nations reined victorious in the first knockout round
USA, Mexico and Canada wins carried them through their first knockout stage games. Northeastern researchers break down the data behind their victories.
The World Cup’s host nations just keep on winning.
All three countries – the United States, Mexico and Canada –- have advanced out of the Round of 32 knockout round stage, and on Saturday will start competing in Round of 16 knockout round matches.
Northeastern University’s NetSport research group helps break down some of the most interesting data points on each team’s victory in their knockout round matches.
Canada
Round of 32 match: defeated South Africa, 1-0
Round of 16 match: plays Morocco at 1 p.m. E.T. Saturday at Houston Stadium
Canada’s duel against South Africa was the first knockout match of the tournament, so excitement was high. With a 30-place rank difference between them – Canada is ranked 30th and South Africa is ranked 60th – the expectation was that the North American team would lead the game.
However, that is not exactly how it played out. While the Canadians created a number high-quality chances, accumulating a total of 1.43 of expected goals, or xG, during the match, South Africa’s defense was strong. According to the data, South Africa’s goalie Ronwen Williams saved a total of four big chances, which are shots that have a high probability of resulting in a goal.
Canada wasn’t able to score until the 91st minute of the game in stoppage time, when central midfielder Stephen Eustaquio punched a goal from outside the box.
While South Africa’s defense was impressive, it created far fewer high-quality scoring opportunities, accumulating a total of.18 of expected goals, during the match
This is the first time Canada has ever made it to a knockout round match in World Cup history, according to FIFA. It will play Morocco today at 1 p.m. at Houston Stadium.
Mexico
Round of 32 match: defeated Ecuador, 2-0
Round of 16 match: plays England at 8 p.m. Sunday, July 5, at the Estadio Azteca in Mexico City
Mexico, ranked 14th, secured an early lead and kept it in its knockout match against Ecuador, ranked 23rd when two of its key players, left winger Julian Quinones and star striker Raul Jimenez, scored goals in the first half.
Both goals are representative of those two players’ typical style of play, Northeastern researchers highlighted. Quinones made the first goal at the 21st minute, after receiving a pass from the left flank from his teammate Roberto Alvarado. It was a textbook type of goal for Quinones, who is particularly dangerous in that zone. Throughout the match, Quinones received the ball 27 times in and and around left wing and left half-space of the pitch, the data shows.
Jimenez, by contrast, delivered his goal at the 31st minute just inside the 18-yard box, a prime location for the country’s star finisher.
Mexico continues its streak of not conceding a single goal to its opponents at this year’s World Cup. The country will play England Sunday, July 5 at 8 p.m. at the Estadio Azteca in Mexico City.
The U.S.
Round of 32 match: defeated Bosnia and Herzegovina, 2-0
Round of 16 match: plays Belgium at 8 p.m. ET on Monday, July 6, at Seattle Stadium
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The United States match against Bosnia and Herzegovina can be broken up into two phases – before star striker Folarian Balogun was taken out of the game and after, the data highlights.
In the first half of the game, Balogun was key in the team’s success, securing its first goal at the 44th minute mark, placing them in the lead over Bosnia and Herzegovina, 1-0.
However, he was later taken out of the game in the second half after receiving a red card following a scuffle where he stepped on an opponent’s leg.
Down a man, the team stayed in formation for the rest of the game and did not swap any players for a substitution until the 87th minute.
That was a smart call, the data shows, as the team’s strong setup formation was key in its overall success. Attacking midfielder Mark Tillman went on to score the country’s second goal on a free kick at the 81st minute mark.
The United States will play Belgium next on Monday, July 6 at Seattle Stadium.
Data analysis provided by Brennan Klein, director for Northeastern University’s NetSI Sport research group.
