Argentina-Cape Verde preview: It’s a matchup between Messi vs. Vozinha
Can the World Cup’s top goal scorer get the best of a goalkeeper in top form?
Argentina’s Lionel Messi is the World Cup’s all-time leading scorer with 19 career goals — including six through three games in this tournament, which is tied for most as of Thursday morning.
On Friday, Messi will lead Team Argentina against Cape Verde in the knockout stage. On paper, it’s a one-sided matchup; Argentina is No. 1 in the FIFA rankings, to No. 67 for Cape Verde — the widest gap between opponents in the Round of 32.
But standing in net for Cape Verde is Vozinha, who turned in a historic seven-save performance against No. 2-ranked Spain earlier in the tournament. Can he replicate that performance and give Cape Verde a chance to surprise Argentina?
Here’s what the data shows. Vozinha ranks seventh among goalkeepers in the World Cup in goals saved above average %, or GSAA % — a metric that measures whether a keeper is saving more or fewer shots than an “average” keeper would, given the quality of shots they face. A positive number means goalkeepers are performing better than expected.
The graphic below shows the goalkeepers with the best shot-stopping efficiency.
By comparison, all three goalkeepers Messi faced in the group stage — Luca Zidane (Algeria), Alexander Schlager (Austria), and Yazeed Abu Laila (Jordan) — rank outside the top 20 in GSAA %. Translation: Messi has scored at a high rate, but not necessarily against keepers in top form like Vozinha.
Still, keeping Messi in check will be a tall task for Vozinha. Messi has taken 15 total shots and scored on six of the seven shots he’s put on target.
Vozinha, for his part, has faced 51 total shots and conceded two goals, with 10 saves. The graphics below show every shot Cape Verde’s goalkeeper has faced (left) and every shot Messi has taken (right) through their three group-stage games. Each dot is a shot; filled dots represent goals. The lines show the direction of the shot toward the goal.
The data shows that Messi shot primarily from central areas, often straight at the goal rather than from wide angles. So the matchup will pit Messi’s skill and efficiency in front of goal against goalkeeper Vozinha’s ability to limit damage under heavy pressure.
Data analysis provided by Maddalena Torricelli, postdoctoral researcher in Northeastern University’s NetSI Sport research group.
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