Norway beat Ivory Coast in a close knockout round match. Data helps reveal how close it really was
Norway and Ivory Coast have been called the dark horses of the World Cup. Here’s what the data says about their close match.
What happens when two similarly matched dark horse teams compete against each other on the World Cup stage?
You get a game like Tuesday’s close knockout match between Ivory Coast, ranked 33, and Norway, ranked 31.
While Norway emerged victorious, with a 2-1 score over Ivory Coast the two teams spent much of the match crisscrossing each other in racking up expected goals, or xG, a measure used to determine a team’s chances of scoring, according to data from Northeastern’s NetSI Sport research group. The higher a team’s xG, the more likely they are to score based on mathematical probability.
The graphic below highlights just how close the two teams were in collecting xG right up until Norway’s striker Erling Haaland delivered the country’s second goal.
Equally notable was how both teams took advantage of players’ “individual brilliance” and dribbling talent to secure their first goals of the game, the researchers said.
Norway’s left winger Antonio Nusa scored the match’s first goal in the 38th minute. He delivered the curling shot after receiving a pass from central midfielder and captain Martin Ødegaard. Ivory Coast’s right winger Amad Diallo responded by delivering the game’s equalizer in the 73rd minute after evading Norway’s defense. Both goals came in response to strong build-ups and each of the wingers’ ability to navigate tight spaces to deliver their shots.
The players may have been closely matched for much of the game, but Haaland’s goal at the 86th minute resulted in a win for the Norwegian team.
That’s unsurprising for anyone paying attention. Norway leads the tournament in average xG per shot at .167, and that’s mostly tied to Haaland’s high success rate in securing goals, according to Northeastern NetSI Sport.
So far, he has scored five goals in this World Cup – tied with England’s Harry Kane – and is second only to Argentina’s Lionel Messi and France’s Kylian Mbappe, who have six each.
Norway will face Brazil, ranked sixth, in a round of 16 matchup at MetLife Stadium Sunday, July 5, at 4 p.m.
Data analysis provided by Brennan Klein, director for Northeastern University’s NetSI Sport research group.
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