The data shows Turkey, Ecuador have excelled. Neither team has won
Turkey and Ecuador have largely dominated their first two games, with data showing high expected goals but hardly anything to show for it.
Sixty-two shots. Zero goals. That’s been the story for Turkey through its first two World Cup games. Despite the scoreboard showing two losses, the data shows the team has dominated quality scoring chances.
See the graphic below with Turkey’s shot map through its first two games; the white circles show where shots were taken, and the larger the circle the larger the xG (expected goal). Their shots cumulatively produced a total of 3.6 expected goals. For a team considered a dark horse in the tournament, it’s an unlucky result, according to Brennan Klein, who leads Northeastern University’s NetSI Sport research group.
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The graphic below delves a bit deeper into the 3.6 xG, showing the progression of Turkey’s matches against Australia and Paraguay. Each uptick in the horizontal lines represents a shot. Turkey had a similar offensive game flow through most of its first two matches, and then around the 75-minute mark against Paraguay, it ramped up the pressure with some higher than expected scoring chances.
With its two losses, Turkey has been eliminated from the knockout round. Its final game of the group-stage round is against the United States on Thursday. The U.S. has already won its group and advanced to the knockout stage.
In addition to Turkey, Ecuador has also outperformed its projected record of one loss and one draw in its first two games, the data shows. Its first game against Ivory Coast was played pretty evenly, with Ecuador allowing a late goal to lose 1-0.
Then, Ecuador seemingly dominated the match against lower-ranked Curaçao, winning in total shots by a margin of 27 to 10. But the match ended in a 0-0 draw, thanks to a standout performance by Curaçao’s goalkeeper Eloy Room, who made 15 saves to equal the current men’s World Cup record for most saves in a single game.
The graphic below shows the offensive game flow in the Ecuador-Curaçao match, with Ecuador posting a total xG six times higher than Curaçao.
Ecuador is now a long shot to make the knockout stage, needing a win over highly-ranked Germany in its final group-stage match on Thursday and other match results to also go in its favor.
Data analysis provided by Brennan Klein, director for Northeastern University’s NetSI Sport research group.
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