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Biden’s decision to drop out of the race is a seismic — but not inconceivable — turn of events that Northeastern University experts say carries both promise and pitfalls for the Democratic Party.
Three weeks after fumbling his debate with former President Donald Trump, President Joe Biden ended his re-election campaign on Sunday, caving to intense pressure from political allies, adversaries and the media.
In making the announcement, Biden endorsed Vice President Kamala Harris, a seismic but not inconceivable turn of events that Northeastern University experts say carries both promise and pitfalls for the Democratic Party.
“My fellow Democrats, I have decided not to accept the nomination and to focus all my energies on my duties as President for the remainder of my term,” Biden said. “My very first decision as the party nominee in 2020 was to pick Kamala Harris as my Vice President. And it’s been the best decision I’ve made. Today I want to offer my full support and endorsement for Kamala to be the nominee.”
My fellow Democrats, I have decided not to accept the nomination and to focus all my energies on my duties as President for the remainder of my term. My very first decision as the party nominee in 2020 was to pick Kamala Harris as my Vice President. And it’s been the best… pic.twitter.com/x8DnvuImJV— Joe Biden (@JoeBiden) July 21, 2024
My fellow Democrats, I have decided not to accept the nomination and to focus all my energies on my duties as President for the remainder of my term. My very first decision as the party nominee in 2020 was to pick Kamala Harris as my Vice President. And it’s been the best… pic.twitter.com/x8DnvuImJV
Biden’s endorsement of Harris was followed Sunday by endorsements by former President Bill Clinton and former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and other prominent Democrats.
Harris would be the first Black woman and first Asian American to lead the ticket of a major political party.
Martha Johnson, an associate professor of government at Northeastern, emphasized that, while a Democratic presidential ticket anchored Harris would be historic, “many questions remain about the process moving forward.”
“This is a remarkable time for the Democratic Party and the country, and many questions remain about the process moving forward,” Johnson says. “If Harris ultimately earns the nomination, which seems likely, it will be a remarkable first for this country.”
But Johnson cautioned that her path forward — in many respects — “will not be easy.”
“Research repeatedly shows evidence of sexism and racism in American politics both explicit and purposeful and more subtle, for example, in media coverage,” Johnson says. “Women of color are often the most targeted by sexist and racist stereotypes and attacks.”
Johnson noted that in lower-level elections, voters “don’t appear to discriminate strongly against women once they are on the ballot and have the full backing of their party and donors.” But presidential elections may be different, she says, alluding to the sexism Hilary Clinton faced in the run-up to the 2016 election.
The Democratic National Convention will take place Aug. 19-22 in Chicago. Without the benefit of a primary process, replacing Biden proceeds in one of two ways — one is a virtual roll call vote and the other is an “open” convention, an unlikely scenario that would leave the nomination process up to the delegates.
Jeremy R. Paul, a professor of law and former dean of the Northeastern University School of Law, says it should not be difficult to get Harris on the ballot in every state ahead of the November election.
If Harris ultimately earns the nomination, which seems likely, it will be a remarkable first for this country.Martha Johnson, an associate professor of government at Northeastern
If Harris ultimately earns the nomination, which seems likely, it will be a remarkable first for this country.
“The vast majority of states don’t put the candidates’ names on the ballot until they are formally nominated — and Biden, of course, wasn’t yet officially nominated,” Paul says.
If Harris becomes the nominee, the Biden-Harris campaign fund shouldn’t see any interruption, Paul says.
“If the Democrats chose someone else, transferring the money would be a lot trickier,” he says.
Still, Harris and her Democratic allies should anticipate lawsuits from conservative groups, says Nick Beauchamp, associate professor of political science at Northeastern.
“We’ll certainly see attempts at all levels to throw wrench after wrench at this, but in terms of the actual rules, I don’t think there will be any issues with the nomination, which hasn’t happened yet,” Beauchamp says.
Harris now needs to focus on uniting congressional Democrats behind her, he says. Shortly after Biden and the Clintons endorsed Harris, a letter began circulating among convention delegates expressing their support for Harris.
“We believe our strongest candidate for president, who can best offer a clear, unifying vision for the future of the United States, is Vice President Kamala Harris,” the letter reads. It goes on to urge all convention delegates, “and all voters in November,” to support Harris for president.
“The goal, presumably, of the Harris faction right now is to make sure that enough people are lined up behind her in the next 24 to 48 hours that whatever opposition there might be — either from within the party or from the donor class — dies on the vine,” Beauchamp says. “They need to get her locked up quickly.”
If nominated, Harris will need to pick a running mate. Names being floated include Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer, Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro, Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear and North Carolina Gov. Roy Cooper — all from battleground states — as well as Sen. Mark Kelly of Arizona.
“If nominated, Harris will need the full and unified backing of her party, Democratic donors, and Democratic activists to overcome these barriers,” Johnson says. “How the nomination process plays out and who ends up on the ticket with Harris will be important.”
Polls conducted after the Biden-Trump debate showed Harris performing about the same as Biden against Trump.
Will Biden dropping out change things dramatically?
Northeastern polling expert David Lazer, a university distinguished professor of political science and computer sciences, isn’t sure it will. At least not right away.
“I don’t think we’ll likely see huge moves in polling,” Lazer says.
Lazer says the race has been stable for the last year or so — with a slight edge to Trump in most national polls.
“We had a competition between two individuals who the American public had very strong opinions about and the race has been very stable,” Lazer says. “People have strong opinions about Trump, and in that case, I expect the race to be stable — as he is arguably the most polarizing figure in recent American history.”
The electorate, Lazer says, has long had concerns about Biden’s age. Biden is 81, Trump 77 and Harris 59.
“It will be interesting to see if Trump faces any critique along those lines,” he says.
Polls, Lazer says, tell us what the electorate feels at a moment in time, not how they will feel in the future.
There’s a lot of time for opinions to change as the public hears directly from Harris about her vision for America, he says.
“As a new race takes hold, we’ll look at what are the arguments that manifest for and against Harris, and how will her coalition differ from Biden’s,” Lazer says.
John Wihbey, an associate professor of media innovation and technology at Northeastern, says the media played a major role in Biden’s decision to drop out of the race.
“What we saw was a three-pronged strategy in the party,” Wihbey says. “All three were connected and it was all channeled through the lens of the news media.”
First, Wihbey says, the congressional leadership pressured Biden to withdraw. Simultaneously, major Democratic donors indicated they may not support the campaign further. Then a media campaign emerged through selective leaks to further pressure the president.
There were a lot of people sitting on the fence,” Wihbey says. “But the media created a sort of narrative about the political winds and I ultimately think that was successful.”
Ultimately, the media narrative of whether Biden should drop out following his debate performance also overshadowed the Biden campaign’s attempt to focus on Trump.
@northeasternglobalnews Are you coconut-pilled? Here are the challenges Kamala Harris faces on the way to the presidential nomination. #KamalaHarris #Harris2024 #PresidentialElection #Biden #CoconutTree ♬ original sound – NGN
Are you coconut-pilled? Here are the challenges Kamala Harris faces on the way to the presidential nomination. #KamalaHarris #Harris2024 #PresidentialElection #Biden #CoconutTree
“They failed to make it a campaign about whether you want Donald Trump back in office,” Wihbey says. “They weren’t able to control that narrative (of Biden’s age) and instead played into that narrative.”
But now, with Biden’s announcement, the media narrative has shifted once again. Trump enjoyed a positive news cycle following the debate, assassination attempt and naming of vice presidential nominee J.D. Vance, but the spotlight has fallen back on the Democrats.
“Trump got, in some ways, as many big positive news cycles as you can get, in a way when typically in midsummer when not as many people are paying attention about the election,” Wihbey says. Now the Democrats have the opportunity to say ‘that’s a summer thing, but now the campaign’s totally different.”
Although questions about Biden’s fitness for office had been percolating since the start of the 2024 campaign season, they intensified after Biden’s disastrous debate on June 27.
His recent COVID diagnosis only amplified the calls for him to step aside.
In a statement, Northeastern School of Law graduate and Massachusetts Gov. Maura Healey thanked Biden for “putting the country first.”
“Joe Biden ran for president to restore the soul of our country and defeat the greatest threat our democracy has ever seen,” Healey said. “And that’s exactly what he did.
“President Biden’s decision today not to seek reelection is the ultimate example of putting the country first — something Joe Biden has done over and over again in his unparalleled career. We are all deeply grateful to President Biden for his lifetime of service.”