Is Nancy Guthrie still alive? Investigators may have to navigate deepfakes and other forms of digital deception, experts say
The prevalence of AI deepfakes and fabricated audio could complicate the investigation as authorities may also need to sift through false leads and potentially manipulated digital evidence.
The investigation into the whereabouts of Nancy Guthrie, the mother of American news anchor Savannah Guthrie, entered its sixth day Friday, in a case that has captivated the nation.
Guthrie, 84, has been missing since Feb. 1 and authorities believe she was taken against her will from her home in the suburb of Oro Valley, Arizona near Tucson located in Pima County.
Law enforcement in Pima County, along with federal investigators, have characterized her disappearance as a potential kidnapping or abduction. Speaking to CNN on Thursday, Pima County Sheriff Chris Nanos said he believes Nancy Guthrie is still alive. County investigators told a press conference that same day that they have no suspects in the case.
But investigators could run into difficulties unique to the digital age, where the traditional means of confirming a person’s identity and the nature of any ransom demand now involves more sophisticated methods of digital sleuthing.
Jack McDevitt, a criminologist and professor of the practice emeritus, who has studied cases of human trafficking, said the prevalence of AI deepfakes and fabricated audio could complicate the investigation as authorities may also need to sift through false leads and potentially manipulated digital evidence.
“In the old days, what they might do is have a question that authorities would ask the victim on the phone such as, ‘What restaurant did you go to on your last birthday?’” McDevitt said. “That would be something that no one else would know, and then law enforcement would know they’re talking to the victim.”
Today, in addition to that method of verification, investigators lean heavily on digital forensics and cyber‑investigation techniques, such as metadata analysis and deepfake detection, among other tools of digital analysis, to determine whether evidence they receive or possess is genuine or manipulated, McDevitt said.
Multiple media outlets have received emails claiming to be ransom demands, seeking millions of dollars in Bitcoin in exchange for Guthrie’s safe return. McDevitt said it is possible the purported demands for Bitcoin, a fully digital form of money, could help the offenders make off with funds while being shrouded in anonymity.
“Obviously, if you’re just putting in the cash in a bag, law enforcement can do a whole variety of things to track the movement of that cash,” McDevitt said.
Federal agents have arrested a Los Angeles County man, Derrick Callella, for allegedly sending a fake ransom text to Savannah Guthrie’s family in the midst of the search.
Officials are still investigating the media-reported ransom notes, which set urgent deadlines for compliance. One such note included details about a floodlight at Guthrie’s home and an Apple Watch.
James Alan Fox, a Northeastern University criminologist, said that kidnappings by family members in the United States are more common than kidnappings by strangers. Nearly half of child abductions, for example, are committed by family members, according to the Child Crime Prevention & Safety Center, an advocacy organization focused on child abduction and exploitation.
“Kidnappings by strangers — you see between 100 to 300 a year nationally,” Fox said. “It’s hard to get a firm number on these, so that’s an estimate.”
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So far, authorities have not indicated whether relatives of Guthrie are suspected or involved in her disappearance.
Fox pointed to several high-profile kidnappings, including the 1973 abduction of John Paul Getty III, the grandson of oil magnate J. Paul Getty; the 2002 kidnapping of Elizabeth Smart from her Utah home; and the 1974 abduction of newspaper heiress Patty Hearst from her Berkeley apartment by an American paramilitary group called the Symbionese Liberation Army.
In the Getty case, he was released after a ransom was paid, after spending five months in captivity. Smart was rescued nine months after her kidnapping, and Hearst was later arrested and imprisoned after being found to have taken part in crimes with her captors.
He said public attention to these cases complicated investigations, but also highlighted how notoriety can make victims targets for crimes driven by leverage, ideology or ransom.
“There are a lot of cases, actually, involving well-known individuals who are wealthy, and obviously had the capacity to pay a ransom,” he said. “And sometimes they do.”
McDevitt noted that there have been a string of residential burglaries involving pro athletes in recent months, with law enforcement and the FBI warning that organized theft groups may be exploiting players’ travel schedules to strike when homes are unoccupied.
“It seems to be the case that celebrities are targeted, and we’ve seen in some of those cases that they involve groups of international criminals,” McDevitt said.
Nanos said that officials are not ruling out anything as they continue to search for Guthrie.
The family has put out several videos, pleading for her safe return and sharing updates about the search.
“What they try to do typically is to paint the victim as somebody who is sympathetic so that the offenders don’t feel like they have to hurt them,” McDevitt said.
