Are political assassinations on the rise? A criminologist weighs in on the shooting death of Charlie Kirk
James Alan Fox, a Northeastern University criminologist, says there has been a rise in politically motivated killings, attempted killings and partisan threats — even though the overall fatalities remains a small number.
The shooting death of conservative commentator Charlie Kirk is the latest in a disturbing rise in politically motivated killings and assassination attempts, according to a Northeastern University criminologist.
Kirk was shot and killed during a speaking event outdoors on the Utah Valley University campus. Graphic footage of the shooting circulated on social media Wednesday, showing the moment Kirk was struck in the neck by a bullet before he was rushed to a local hospital and pronounced dead.
There were two assassination attempts on President Donald Trump — both occurring during the 2024 campaign. In two separate incidents earlier this year, a Minnesota lawmaker was killed in her home, and another, along with his wife, survived an assassination attempt. In December, United Health Group’s CEO was shot and killed on a sidewalk in Manhattan.
Utah Gov. Spencer Cox called the fatal shooting a “political assassination” — as did Trump and others.
James Alan Fox, a Northeastern University criminologist, says there has been a rise in politically motivated killings, attempted killings and violent threats in the U.S. — even though the overall fatalities remain a small number.
“Of course, we’re still talking about small numbers in terms of actual violence,” he says. “There are lots of threats, and that is of great concern too.”
Fox notes that there have been more threats made against legislators, judges and others in the political sphere.
“It’s not surprising,” Fox says, “given the overall tone and the kind of heated rhetoric we see. We now have politicians saying things that they would never have said decades ago.”
While Europe has seen several high-profile attacks on politicians in recent decades, assassination attempts remain relatively rare. But experts say the U.S stands apart when it comes to mass shootings and killings — largely due to its vastly higher rate of gun ownership.
There is data showing that political violence has spiked in recent years in the U.S. According to the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), there has been “a dramatic rise” in “attacks and plots” motivated by partisan views since 2016. That includes “a dramatic rise in attacks and plots motivated by partisan political beliefs” … “attacks and plots against elected officials, political candidates, political party officials, political staff and workers and their offices.”
In just the past five years, the U.S. has seen almost three times as many attacks and plots as it did over the entire previous quarter-century, according to CSIS. Political violence is at its worst point in the U.S. since the 1970s, according to Reuters.
The difference today, Fox says, is that perpetrators are targeting individuals they believe to be associated with the opposing faction or party instead of, say, government buildings or employees, as was the case in the 1990s during anti-government militia movements.
“There’s been a shift from expressing violence against the government as an entity to partisan individuals representing the opposing set of views,” he says.
However, Peter Fraunholtz, assistant teaching professor in history and international affairs at Northeastern University, qualifies that it’s not so easy to discern a motive in these cases, even if the target appears to be clearly linked to one or another political faction.
Investigators are still working to determine a motive behind the targeted killing of Minnesota lawmaker Melissa Hortman and her husband — and no definitive motive was ever established in the two assassination attempts on Trump’s life.
“In an age of considerable anxiety driven by economic, cultural and social factors, political polarization has taken on an existential component,” Fraunholtz says. “Each tribe or faction sees the others contributing to the imminent destruction of proper American norms, values and liberties.”
Editor’s Picks
As political discourse has increasingly spilled over to social media in recent decades, Fox says platforms like Facebook, X (formerly Twitter) and TikTok have helped sow the seeds of political polarization and violence.
“There is all sorts of stuff brewing on social media; people can find others who agree with them, and, therefore, solidify and reinforce their point of view,” Fox says.
Data shows that the U.S. has become more politically polarized in recent decades. A 2025 Gallup poll found that more Democrats and Republicans are identifying themselves at the extreme ends of the political spectrum — and data shows that Americans on both sides increasingly disagree on a shared set of facts.
“There’s data showing that a significant number of people in this country believe that there’s going to be a civil war,” Fox says.
“I don’t recall a time in the past when people ran around, as they do today, with a hat that says I’m a Democrat or a Republican,” Fox says. “But the MAGA hats, which have obviously become popular, clearly identify one side, and that’s something that is new in this day and age: that people would wear their political persuasions on their bodies.”
Fox also cautions not to jump to conclusions about what might have motivated Kirk’s killer. Investigators say they have obtained “high quality” video of a suspect, releasing several images of a person of interest.
The manhunt continued into Thursday afternoon.
Kirk’s killing sparked widespread condemnation from politicians on both sides of the aisle.
“There is no place in our country for this kind of violence. It must end now,” former President Joe Biden said on social media. “Jill and I are praying for Charlie Kirk’s family and loved ones.”
Trump said on Thursday that he will award Kirk a posthumous Presidential Medal of Freedom.
