The split could potentially divide the party at a key moment for the administration, says Costas Panagopoulos, distinguished professor of political science.
The breakup between President Donald Trump and billionaire Elon Musk could embolden Trump critics within the Republican Party, potentially dividing the party at a key moment as the administration tries to shepherd a signature spending bill through Congress, says Costas Panagopoulos, distinguished professor of political science.
“My sense is this relationship between Trump and Musk was always mainly transactional, and when the benefits of remaining in the partnership began to fray, then there was no reason to continue it,” Panagopoulos says. “Especially when there were elements of contention that the president may not have been flexible with.”
The two began to publicly feud over Trump’s “Big Beautiful Bill,” a piece of legislation that forecasters have said would add more than $2 trillion to the national debt.
The tech titan, who headed the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), took to his social media platform X this week to denounce the bill, calling it the “Debt Slavery Bill” and noting it runs contrary to DOGE’s efforts to cut government spending.
Trump fired back, claiming that the “easiest way to save money” to the tune of “billions and billions” is to “terminate Elon’s Government Subsidies and Contracts.” Musk and his businesses have received at least $38 billion in government contracts, loans, subsidies and tax credits, according to The Washington Post.
That prompted Elon to post on X: “In light of the President’s statement about cancellation of my government contracts, @SpaceX will begin decommissioning its Dragon spacecraft immediately.”
“What you have unsurprisingly is a clash between two very powerful men who can do considerable damage to each other by virtue of the platforms that they possess to influence public opinion,” Panagopoulos says.
It remains to be seen if the two will make amends to preserve party unity. But, if past history is to judge, Panagopoulos says he thinks the pair will double down.
“It could potentially be epic unless both men realize that it’s doing so much damage to each of them that they back off,” he says. “But that is unlikely given what we know about the personalities involved here; and if anything, I expect that they will both dig in rather than defuse the tension.”
“Of course, with someone like Trump, one can never be certain because he is so unpredictable,” Panagopoulos adds.
Panagopoulos has studied the political impact Musk’s support of Trump, and his subsequent role in the administration, has had on consumer support for Tesla.
Panagopoulos says that Trump can do “tremendous damage to Musk” by severing ties with Musk’s companies — though just how much would depend on “Trump’s willingness to leverage his political powers to go after a critic.”
“That will almost certainly be perceived as retribution or revenge for personal motives and conceivably even an abuse of power,” Panagopoulos says.
Were Trump to embark on a campaign of revenge against Musk, he could alienate even his own supporters, Panagopoulos says.
“Many Trump voters still have concerns about the president using his political authority for personal or political retribution, so it’s a delicate balancing act for the president,” he says.
The rift also creates an opening for Trump critics in Congress and elsewhere to use the feud “as cover to object to Trump’s policies and priorities,” Panagopoulos says.
“At a minimum, they know that by standing up against Trump they could potentially curry favor with Musk, and that could have benefits down the road,” Panagopoulos says. “Many of the things that Musk is objecting to historically are associated with Republican positions, like the budget deficit.”
A number of high-profile Senate Republicans have expressed opposition to Trump’s bill, including Rand Paul of Kentucky, Ron Johnson of Wisconsin, Rick Scott of Florida and Mike Lee of Utah.
Musk, whose backing of Trump in 2024 significantly boosted the GOP, has already hinted at throwing his weight behind candidates challenging Republican incumbents in the midterms.
“The main question now is: what is going to be the bigger consideration, Trump’s political power or Musk’s financial power?” Panagopoulos says. “That’s what each of these two men have to hold over Republicans in Congress.”
“While Trump can also help attract funding for Republicans seeking reelection, it’s really his strength with MAGA voters that’s most valuable,” Panagopoulos says. “But that doesn’t mean he doesn’t run up against limitations against huge financial expenditures that Musk can deploy.”
So far, Vice President JD Vance has stood on the sidelines as the two duke it out.
“It wouldn’t surprise me if Trump appeals to him to back him up publicly so that he can have another vocal supporter articulating pro-Trump views,” Panagopoulos says.