Tariffs may raise food costs. But what about availability for fresh fruits and vegetables?
As tariffs are applied, rescinded, reapplied and countered, economists are anticipating that food prices will rise.
But what about food availability, especially for perishables like fresh fruits and vegetables? Will we still be able to get fresh strawberries in February?
Northeastern University food-pricing and supply-chain expert John Lowrey says we can still add fresh produce to our grocery list, but we should expect fewer varieties on shelves should a trade war escalate.
“The U.S. consumer will not necessarily see lower availability of avocados, let’s say, but there will certainly be a change in the varieties of avocados on the shelf with characteristics that correspond to changes in how these products are sourced,” says Lowrey, assistant professor of supply chain and information management and health sciences at Northeastern.
For example, more California avocado varieties compared to Mexican varieties.
“Trade relations can change the proportion of a given food variety within the category,” Lowrey continues. “But I don’t think we’re going to see an aggregate reduction in availability.”
Since 1981, fresh fruit imports to the United States have doubled and fresh vegetable imports tripled, facilitated by major trade agreements such as the North American Free Trade Agreement of 1994 and the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement in 2020.
In 2023, Mexico supplied 51% of fresh fruit imports and 69% of fresh vegetable imports to the United States, while Canada supplied 2% and 20% of the same products, respectively, according to the USDA.
But tariffs on the two countries — which make up the United States’ top trade partners, along with China — threaten to disrupt that trade trajectory.
Exactly how it will affect particular fruits and vegetables in price and in variety, however, depends on two factors, Lowrey says.
First is whether the U.S. is a net importer or a net exporter for a given agricultural commodity, which directly affects the domestic supply of a given fruit or vegetable.
Say the U.S. is a net importer of strawberries pre-tariff. Then the supply of strawberries in the U.S. is artificially elevated by the availability of cheap imports. Since prices are negatively correlated with supply, this means strawberries are cheap.
With tariffs slapped on strawberries from Mexico, for example, then the supply of strawberries in the U.S. will fall, making strawberries more expensive. The U.S. imports about 60% of its fresh fruit, Lowrey explains, suggesting that the price for most fruit products will increase.
On the other hand, Lowrey says if the United States is a net exporter for apples, let’s say, then the domestic supply is artificially low, which helps to push prices up.
Import tariffs on foods for which the U.S. is a net exporter won’t have much, or any, effect on domestic supply, Lowrey explains.
That is unless — of course — the United States faces retaliatory tariffs, which is the second factor, Lowrey explains.
“Tariffs are not set in isolation,” Lowrey notes. “You can imagine a situation where — if the U.S. faces retaliatory tariffs — then countries may not purchase those food products for which the U.S. is a net exporter, reducing gross domestic product and lowering the producers’ profitability.”
If domestic farmers’ profitability changes significantly in the absence of an international market, they may be forced to either develop the domestic market or switch to another crop.
“Since growing conditions are specific to the location of the farm, many farmers will likely compete in the same crop, translating to greater competition,” Lowrey explains.
Uneven tariffs, however, are more likely.
“The net effect is that we will be more reliant on domestically produced, in-season varieties,” Lowrey says. For example, sourcing citrus from Florida rather than Mexico or South American countries.
So, should you take up canning? Buy a farm or, at least, an extra large freezer?
Not necessarily.
“These things don’t change immediately,” Lowrey says. “Anything enacted in terms of trade and trade relations takes a long time to trickle through the system.”
As for strawberries in February …
“A sudden and instantaneous change in strawberry tariff policy will not necessarily constrain the supply so much that we see shortages like we did during the pandemic,” Lowrey says. “But it depends on the variety of strawberry that you’re talking about.”