One way the Democratic Party might look to rebound is by staking out more conservative positions, a Northeastern political scientist says.
With the benefit of hindsight, the Democratic Party is taking stock of failed tactics, strategies and decisions that led to losses in the 2024 election.
The Democratic Party may try staking out more centrist positions in bid to expand their appeal amid a shift in voting patterns, says Martha Johnson, associate professor of government at Northeastern University.
“It seems likely many Democratic politicians will adopt more conservative positions on issues like immigration or more populist trade policies,” Johnson says.
After an eventful 2024 presidential campaign season that saw the incumbent drop out of the race and endorse his vice president at the 11th hour, the Democratic Party’s deepening ideological rift between its progressive and centrist wings is the latest expression of a crisis of confidence in the party.
In a way, the tug of war over leadership and direction of the party — confirmed by reports of infighting — is nothing unusual, says Nick Beauchamp, associate professor of political science at Northeastern. But it is an important sidebar in determining how the party rebounds from a series of stinging losses.
The party’s center-left coalition, the New Democrat Coalition, has a “deep bench” of potential standard-bearers going into the 2026 midterm elections and beyond, Beauchamp says.
Given the political realities that contributed to Republican Party’s success in 2024, the Democrats’ progressive wing, the Congressional Progressive Caucus, could face an uphill battle in contesting seats in the midterms — even despite the presence of “The Squad,” Beauchamp says.
As the party looks to regain momentum, the more moderate faction of the party is likely to avoid populist-left rhetoric despite the success of the populist right in 2024, Beauchamp notes.
As the intraparty squabble continues, the question becomes: from which camp will the stars emerge?
“We’re seeing that fight happen at this very moment,” Beauchamp says. “We’ll see some of that happening in 2026, and we’ll see it at a much larger scale when 2028 approaches.”
Talk of the Democratic Party’s infighting seemed to build in spring 2024 before snowballing into a full-blown crisis following former President Joe Biden’s disastrous debate performance in June. After Biden stepped aside, Vice President Kamala Harris began a late bid for the presidency that saw her lose in all seven swing states. Republicans retained the House and captured the Senate, consolidating their victory in a unified government.
Post-mortems of Democrats’ performance consistently referenced a political realignment in U.S. politics, which included a rightward shift in voting patterns, notably among working-class men of all demographics.
That shift is certain to have an effect on the losing party. Looking at global patterns, Johnson says that center-left parties generally slide further to the right as right-wing parties do well in elections.
“I imagine they will primarily focus on economic issues and specific federal programs and be wary of focusing on the sorts of dramatic proposals or social issues with which the party’s progressive wing is associated,” she says.
But there is also the danger in overstating the Republican victories in 2024, says Costas Panagopoulos, distinguished professor of political science at Northeastern and co-author of “Battleground: Electoral College Strategies, Execution, and Impact in the Modern Era.”
Panagopoulos and Beauchamp note that the momentum swings over the last several cycles still point to a narrowly divided electorate — and a sense that “anything can happen” over the next four years.
The party of the president tends to lose congressional seats between presidential elections. Indeed, every House flip since 1955 has occurred during the midterm elections, data shows.
“If history is any guide, the Democrats will have an advantage in House elections in 2026 — and, given how razor-thin the Republican majority is, there is a good chance that the Democrats can flip the House in the midterm elections,” Panagopoulos says. “But that is not a guarantee.”
In the 22 midterm elections from 1934 to 2018, the incumbent’s party lost 28 House seats and four Senate seats on average, data shows. Should the Democrats perform well in the midterms, it will help them build back a coalition capable of challenging the Republicans in 2028.
Even if the Democrats manage to take back some congressional seats, experts maintain that a center-left politics with concessions to the right will likely set the tone.
“I doubt the coming months or years will allow the progressives to shine,” Johnson says. “I think the centrists in the party will work hard to maintain control and moderate the party message.”
The story of the 2024 election, Panagopoulos says, was voters’ frustration with persistent inflation and higher prices during the Biden years — a fact compounded by slowdown in wage growth in certain sectors. Exit polling data showed that roughly 75% of voters reported that inflation had caused “moderate or severe hardship” during that year.
Panagopoulos says if there is one thing the Democrats can learn from President Donald Trump, it was the fact that he “relentlessly” engaged while out of office.
“Trump spent the past four years blasting Biden and Democrats, particularly on the economy,” he says.
“Democrats could take a page from that playbook right now and not wait until the election is closer to make their case to voters,” he says.