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“To the extent that Republicans can overcome their internal divisions over immigration policy, that might be their signature achievement,” Christopher Bosso says.
When President-elect Donald Trump takes office in January, Republicans will have a majority in both chambers of Congress, paving the way for a potentially seamless implementation of the incoming president’s agenda.
And of all the issues that were discussed during the campaign, immigration will be a top priority for Trump come 2025, Northeastern public policy experts say.
Trump made immigration the centerpiece of his 2024 presidential bid, says John Portz, professor of political science at Northeastern, and he anticipates that action items on the border will be taken up immediately after Trump assumes office.
“Certainly immigration would be near the top of their list, for sure,” he says. “I think they will make some changes there; but whether they can really do systemic reform — which is considerably different — is going to be really challenging.”
Since 1857, or roughly the beginning of the two-party system, the U.S. has had so-called “unified” government — meaning, control of the executive branch and both chambers of Congress — on 48 occasions, with 23 under Democratic control and 25 under Republican control, according to the Office of the Historian and the Clerk of the House’s Office of Art and Archives.
The last time the U.S. saw a unified government was during the first two years of President Joe Biden’s tenure. Trump also saw unified support during his first term — for about eight months. Before that, former President Barack Obama enjoyed a unified government during the earlier months of his first term, which resulted in the passage of the Affordable Care Act, perhaps the single most consequential piece of legislation enacted during the Obama years.
If history is any indication, there will be roadblocks to the incoming Trump administration’s agenda — some potentially even from within the president-elect’s own party, Northeastern public policy experts say.
“I don’t know if there actually is anything that they could get through quite like the Affordable Care Act. That’s not their orientation,” says Christopher Bosso, professor of public policy and politics and interim chair of the department.
“Their view is slash and burn — at least, that is what this current generation seems to have in mind. From where I sit, I have not yet seen the materialization of a policy proposal on any significant issue, except maybe immigration,” Bosso says. “Ironically, of course, Trump scuttled the immigration deal earlier this year, so I think it’ll be a challenge to get everyone on the same page on this issue.”
@northeasternglobalnews With control of the White House and Congress, will Republicans pass immigration reform? Northeastern experts explain the hurdles they may face. #Politics #Republicans #Democrats #HouseRace #Election2024 #Trump #MattGaetz #Immigration ♬ original sound – NGN
With control of the White House and Congress, will Republicans pass immigration reform? Northeastern experts explain the hurdles they may face. #Politics #Republicans #Democrats #HouseRace #Election2024 #Trump #MattGaetz #Immigration
That bipartisan deal, advanced by Senate Democrats, was ultimately defeated by Republicans after Trump pressured GOP lawmakers to vote against it. The bill, which initially received endorsements from the National Border Patrol Council and the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, was intended to help incentivize Republicans to support separate foreign aid packages for Ukraine, Israel and Taiwan.
The border bill would have beefed up asylum standards and instituted an automatic shutdown of illegal crossings if encounters reached a certain daily threshold. But Republican leaders, including Texas Sen. Ted Cruz, said the bill was “designed to fail” — and that it would have been dead on arrival. House Speaker Mike Johnson described it as an “election year Hail Mary,” intended to “cover [congressional Democrats’] embrace of President Biden’s open border policies.”
“To the extent that Republicans can overcome their internal divisions over immigration policy, that might be their signature achievement if — and only if — they can get their act together in the first two years,” Bosso says. “The Democrats may well retake the House during the midterms. If I’m a betting man, that could well happen.”
Portz recalls the difficulty former President George W. Bush faced in getting immigration reform passed during his second term in office, when Republicans controlled both the House and the Senate. Republicans ultimately defeated a bill that would have, among other things, provided amnesty to some 12 million illegal immigrants, and tightened border security.
“It’s not that there are new ideas per say, but the problem historically has been getting people around the table, which is probably more difficult now than in years prior,” Portz says.
Public fervor on the immigration issue — fostered by Trump during his campaign — isn’t likely to go away, Portz says. And the president can use his executive authority to immediately implement drastic changes.
On Monday, Trump confirmed that he would declare a national emergency and use the military to conduct mass deportations of illegal immigrants. Meanwhile, his attorneys are working to craft executive orders that can survive legal challenges.
Another looming agenda item could be the Affordable Care Act. Though Trump has wavered on his support for the health care law, he did support Republican-led repeal-and-replace efforts during his first term.
Repeal and replace, too, ultimately failed.
“I’m sure immigration is going to be a top issue. That and they said they were going to go after health care again, so the GOP may do that too,” Portz says. “I think they may be in a better position with the numbers, but the [Affordable Care Act] has enough support broadly in the population that they need to be careful about that.”