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Election 2024: Early voting ‘could be decisive in the right places,’ expert says

In general, early voting has been shown to boost participation and help voter turnout, says Costas Panagopoulos, distinguished professor of political science at Northeastern University.

A person filling out a ballot during early voting.
In general, early voting has been shown to boost participation and help voter turnout, experts say. However, state rules differ. AP Photo/Carolyn Kaster

Election Day is less than 50 days away, but the voting has already started. 

In some states, the runway to vote stretches some distance. In Alabama, for example, voters began mailing in ballots as early as Sept. 11.

North Carolina was supposed to be the first state to accept absentee ballots on Sept. 6 — that is, before an appeals court ruled in favor of independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s legal requests to have his name removed from the ballot. (That meant that election workers had to reformat and print new ballots.)

In Pennsylvania, early voting began on Sept. 16. It’s set to begin on Sept. 20 in Minnesota and Virginia. Voters in Vermont can start casting their ballots Sept. 21, and, in Illinois, on Sept. 26. In Massachusetts, early voting is available starting Oct. 19 to Nov 1.

Minnesota and Vermont begin in-person and absentee voting this month, two methods of voting prior to Election Day itself.   

Every state has different rules with respect to early voting. In general, early voting has been shown to boost participation and help voter turnout, says Costas Panagopoulos, distinguished professor of political science at Northeastern University. 

And most voters know who they are going to vote for weeks and months ahead of schedule, Panagopoulos says. 

Should a voter change their mind after casting an early ballot, they can change their vote in some states. In others, once you cast a ballot, your choice is final.   

In Massachusetts, for example, you can only change your vote if a mailed-in ballot “never reached your local election office.” If such is the case, a person can cast their vote in-person.

In New Hampshire, those who cast absentee ballots can show up on Election Day before their ballot is processed and cast a superseding in-person ballot. But in states like Maine, only in-person absentee voting in the presence of a clerk, or absentee by mail, is permitted.  

Will people vote early in 2024?

In keeping with recent cycles, a significant chunk of the electorate is expected to vote prior to Nov. 5, Panagopoulos says. The story in 2020 was that early voting via mail-in ballots shot up because of concerns tied to the COVID-19 pandemic. 

About 70% of the more than 150 million votes cast in that election were cast in the lead-up to Election Day, reporting shows. Now that pandemic concerns have abated, the question is will that trend hold in future election cycles? 

“I expect sizable segments of the American electorate will avail themselves of early voting in the 2024 cycle,” Panagopoulos says. “Perhaps fewer than in 2020, but not negligible.”

Over the years, a larger number of states have expanded their early voting options because it’s been shown to spur participation, Panagopoulos says. 

In close races — and by all accounts, this year’s presidential contest is expected to be close — he says the added boost from early ballots could make a difference.  

“Turnout in 2024 will likely be elevated by convenience voting reforms like early voting, even if only by a few percentage points, which could be decisive in the right places,” he says.