Why it’s so hard to make accurate predictions
This week marked the release of the 200th edition of The Farmers’ Almanac, which is primarily known for providing long-range weather forecasts. But its historically spotty predictions call into question the very value of prognostication itself. We asked psychology professor Nancy Kim to explain why it’s so difficult for pundits—the so-called experts—to make accurate predictions about everything from sports and politics to economics and entertainment.
