In a paper published in the journal Science on Thursday, a team from Northeastern University took a shot at creating a new tool for predicting whether a paper will be a major breakthrough.

In the new work, Albert-László Barabási, a physicist who works in the emerging field of analyzing networks, found that with four to five years of data on how a paper has been received by the scientific community, it is possible to make a fairly good prediction of the long-term influence.

He used a barometer called “fitness,” which is a quantitative measure of how the community responds to a new piece of science.