Zika virus: Only a few small outbreaks likely to occur in the continental US
The Conversation - 09/12/2016
It is estimated that about 80 percent of Zika infections are asymptomatic or have symptoms so mild that the disease is not detected. This means the number of cases reported by disease surveillance systems in the U.S. and across the world might be only a small fraction of the actual number of infections. In fact, it’s likely we are are underestimating imported cases in the U.S. and even likely some locally spread cases.
In this situation, mathematical and computational models that account for mosquito populations, human mobility, infrastructure and other factors that influence the spread of Zika are valuable because they can generate estimates of the full extent of the epidemic.
It is estimated that about 80 percent of Zika infections are asymptomatic or have symptoms so mild that the disease is not detected. This means the number of cases reported by disease surveillance systems in the U.S. and across the world might be only a small fraction of the actual number of infections. In fact, it’s likely we are are underestimating imported cases in the U.S. and even likely some locally spread cases.
In this situation, mathematical and computational models that account for mosquito populations, human mobility, infrastructure and other factors that influence the spread of Zika are valuable because they can generate estimates of the full extent of the epidemic.
