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  • Those with jobs are more secure even as hopes dwindle for long-term unemployed

    The Wall Street Journal - 03/11/2014

    Yet another recession-triggered split in the consumer sector is becoming more evident: Higher job security among those with a job versus dwindling hope for the long-run unemployed.

    The growing gap is recasting the consumer sector and raises questions on how it will support economic growth.

    Recent reports show workers are feeling fewer job jitters.

    The Survey of Consumers Expectations released Monday by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York shows workers on average give a probability of 16.15% of losing their current job, the lowest reading since July. In addition, the latest U.S. household survey done by the Royal Bank of Canada indicates only 22% of workers fear they may lose their jobs. That is the lowest reading in three years.

    However, just because people with jobs are worried less about losing them doesn’t mean long-run job-seekers are having an easier time of finding work.

    The share of long-term jobless among total unemployed has been stuck around 37% for about the last year. Prior to the last recession, the share hit 26% after the 1981-82 downturn but never ran for more than a month or two above 23%, not even during the previous jobless recoveries.

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