Ebola could infect 500,000 by end of January, according to CDC projection
The Washington Post - 09/19/2014
Alessandro Vespignani, a Northeastern University physicist, has looked at the outbreak and studied the response on the ground. He has worked on a model to estimate the growth of the disease, and by the end of this month, he has said, the epidemic could get much worse — as in, “thousands and thousands of cases” worse. Vespignani and his colleagues project between 6,000 and 10,000 Ebola cases by late September.
“These predictions are like the weather forecast,” Vespignani said. “These are statistical predictions. So you have uncertainty cones.”
Vespignani’s model assumes that response to the deadly virus stays the same, that the picture of the event remains unchanged. It assumes there will not be increased medical attention and that the spread of Ebola will continue.