Mexico plays England in one of the best data-driven matchups in the World Cup Round of 16
In another Round of 16 match, Team USA could defeat Belgium with strong passing networks and advance to the quarterfinals, according to the data.
Canada is out and France has advanced to the quarterfinals of the World Cup.
The Round of 16 knockout matches kicked off Saturday and will continue this week.
Northeastern University’s NetSI Sport has the breakdown on some of the other most notable matches to watch this week and what the data tells us about each going in.
Mexico versus England
Sunday, at 8 p.m. EDT July 5, at Estadio Banorte, Mexico City, Mexico
Mexico will work to maintain its streak of not conceding a single goal to an opponent during this World Cup in its matchup against England on Sunday.
The country will have home-field advantage as the match will be played at the Estadio Banorte, also known as the Estadio Azteca. Since the stadium opened in 1966, Mexico has only lost two out of 89 competitive games, according to the data. That is partly because the stadium sits at over 7,200 ft above sea level, which means the air in the stadium is thinner.
That will likely cause challenges for some of England’s most valuable midfield talent, known for their sprinting and running abilities to recover and gain possession of the ball. Those players include Jude Bellingham, Declan Rice and Elliston Anderson.
However, Mexico isn’t entering the match without its own challenges. While the team may not have conceded a goal, it has yet to face a player like Harry Kane, who has accumulated alone 2.3 of expected goals in his four 2026 World Cup matches so far. For context, all four of the teams Mexico faced so far in the 2026 World Cup accumulated a total of 2.0 of expected goals.
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Spain versus Portugal
Monday, at 3 p.m. EDT July 6, at AT&T Stadium, Arlington, Texas
With a rivalry known as the Iberian Derby, Spain and Portugal have long been fierce competitors, given that they are neighbors on the Iberian Peninsula.
Both also employ similar styles of play to dominate on the field, with a reliance on strong midfield talent.
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As shown by the country’s passing maps, both have achieved high numbers of completed passes throughout their four matches, particularly in the midfield. Spain is ranked first in completed passes among remaining teams, with a total of 2,625 completed passes. Portugal is ranked third, with a total of 2,285 completed passes.
Of the two, Spain, which, like Mexico, hasn’t conceded a goal in this World Cup, is the favorite to win, and is implementing a similar strategy that led it to victory in the 2024 UEFA European Football Championship.
As illustrated by the country’s goblet-shaped passing network, that strategy involves relying heavily on midfielders Pedro González López, Daniel Olmo, Rodrigo Hernández Cascante, who dictate the tempo of play. They are key in delivering the ball to winged attackers like Lamine Yamal and Álex Baena and Mikel Oyarzabal, who tends to operate more centrally.
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USA versus Belgium
Monday, at 8 p.m. EDT July 6 at Lumen Field, Seattle, Washington
Belgium, ranked ninth, may be ranked higher than the United States, ranked 16th, but its passing networks throughout its four matches so far point to a team that is less unified in strategy than the Americans, the data shows.
One of the keys to the United States’ success so far has been the wide passing triangle formations, particularly on the right and left-hand sides of the pitch. On the left side, this triangle is composed of left back Antonee Robinson, left winger Christian Pulisic and attacking midfielder Malik Tillman. On the right, it’s composed of right back Alex Freeman, right wing Dest Sergino and attacking midfielder Weston McKennie.
Belgium, by contrast, does not implement a similar or consistent structure in any of its matches, as illustrated by its passing networks.
Additionally, while the U.S. has taken fewer shots than Belgium overall per game — Belgium shoots on average 24 shots per game to the United States’ 13 — the American team makes more shots from within the box, so its average quality of shot is higher.
In past matches, Belgium has dominated against the U.S. In the 2014 World Cup, Belgium beat the U.S., 2-1, for example. But that was 12 years ago, and the data suggests the U.S. may have a chance against the European team this year, according to Northeastern researchers.
And with FIFA now suspending striker Florian Balogun’s one game red card ban, the U.S’ chances of success have improved substantially, Northeastern’s NetSI Sport said.
Data analysis provided by Brennan Klein, director for Northeastern University’s NetSI Sport research group.
